Housing in this service area mostly went up between 1938 and 2005, with the bulk of the stock dating to the 1980s and 90s across the 28 named neighborhoods and towns we cover. Doors and track hardware installed in that window are now 25 to 45 years old - well past the point where steel rail develops fatigue at the mounting brackets, and well past the point where the original rollers (often still steel, not nylon) have worn enough play into the track to let a door walk sideways under stress.
Add a cold, severe climate on top of that age, and the failure mode gets worse. Track brackets fastened to jamb studs go through repeated freeze-thaw cycling every winter, which loosens lag screws over years and lets the whole track assembly shift a fraction of an inch out of plumb. A door that's slightly out of plumb doesn't jump the track dramatically - it does it quietly, one degree at a time, until a cold morning start puts enough extra strain on the opener to finally pull a roller clean off the rail.
This isn't a one-house problem. It's a stock-wide pattern tied to how old the hardware is and how hard the winters are on fasteners that were never meant to be permanent.